Child Tax Credit
A per-child credit against income tax, partially refundable.
JCT line: "Credit for children and other dependents". Includes $47.9B of refundable outlay effects.
JCT Table 3 puts 47% of the credit on returns under $100,000 and 21% on returns over $200,000, broad, with a modest upward skew following the 2017 increase in the phase-out thresholds.
Of $129B in total benefit. JCT, Estimates of Federal Tax Expenditures for Fiscal Years 2025-2029 (JCX-45-25), Table 3.
Structural reading
Ranked here as a contrast case and a test of the tool's own honesty: it is among the largest transfers in the code and among the least concentrated. A ranking system that only surfaced transfers one already disliked would not be worth building. The one genuinely structural concentration effect runs in the unusual direction, the phase-in of refundability means the households with the least income receive less than the full credit, which is worth stating plainly precisely because it cuts against the framing that concentration always runs upward.
Who gets it
The channels the benefit actually flows through, described by asset position, entity form and form of return. Never by named individuals.
Cost split by the concentration score. That score is a judgement rather than a published figure, so treat this as the scale of the split, not an audited allocation.
- Households with dependent children across most of the income range
The credit is per-child and flat rather than proportional to income or assets, which spreads it broadly by construction.
- Structural exclusion at the bottom
Because the refundable portion phases in with earnings, the lowest-earning families receive less than the full credit, a concentration effect that runs upward from the bottom rather than toward the top.
Who pays
General taxpayers, including households without dependent children.
This transfer follows a general pattern, asymmetric organisation, sustained expert attention, and scheduled expiry dates.
How rent-seeking works →Legislative history and accountability
Enacting statutes, major amendments, recorded votes with party breakdown, and live reform proposals.
Enabling legislation
- Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997P.L. 105-34Aug 5, 1997
Created the credit at $400 per child, nonrefundable.
houseJul 31, 1997· Agreed to, 389-43Who voted which way: full roll callDemocratic164 yea41 nay80% yeaRepublican225 yea1 nay100% yeaIndependent / other0 yea1 nay0% yeasenateJul 31, 1997· Agreed to, 92-8Who voted which way: full roll callDemocratic37 yea8 nay82% yeaRepublican55 yea0 nay100% yea
Major amendment
- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017P.L. 115-97Dec 22, 2017
Doubled the credit to $2,000 and raised the phase-out thresholds substantially, extending it to households well above the previous cut-off, with a sunset at the end of 2025.
houseDec 20, 2017· Agreed to, 224-201Who voted which way: full roll callDemocratic0 yea189 nay0% yeaRepublican224 yea12 nay95% yeasenateDec 20, 2017· Agreed to, 51-48Who voted which way: full roll callDemocratic0 yea46 nay0% yeaRepublican51 yea0 nay100% yeaIndependent / other0 yea2 nay0% yea - American Rescue Plan Act of 2021P.L. 117-2Mar 11, 2021
Made the credit fully refundable and paid it monthly for one year. The expansion expired at the end of 2021 and was not extended.
houseMar 10, 2021· Agreed to, 220-211Who voted which way: full roll callDemocratic220 yea1 nay100% yeaRepublican0 yea210 nay0% yeasenateMar 6, 2021· Passed, 50-49Who voted which way: full roll callDemocratic48 yea0 nay100% yeaRepublican0 yea49 nay0% yeaIndependent / other2 yea0 nay100% yea - One Big Beautiful Bill ActP.L. 119-21Jul 4, 2025
Made the 2017 individual rate structure permanent and further expanded the credit, removing the sunset that would otherwise have returned it to its pre-2018 level. Enacted through budget reconciliation.
No separate recorded vote on this provision, it passed by voice, predates recorded electronic voting, or moved inside a larger package voted on as a whole.
Sources and data freshness
Published within the last year. Figures marked unverified are seed estimates that have not been reconciled line-by-line against the primary source document. See the methodology for how each score is constructed.
Cite this figure
JCT, Estimates of Federal Tax Expenditures for Fiscal Years 2025-2029 (JCX-45-25), Table 1, published Dec 3, 2025. FY2025 estimate for "Child Tax Credit": $128,400,000,000. https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-45-25/ Via RentSeek, https://rentseek.bothand.tech/transfer/child-tax-credit
The primary document is cited first on purpose. Send your reader to the source table rather than to this site, which is a finding aid and not the authority for any figure on it.